Thermal state of the <scp>E</scp>xplorer segment of the <scp>C</scp>ascadia subduction zone: Implications for seismic and tsunami hazards
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Explorer segment of northernmost Cascadia is an end‐member “warm” subduction zone with very young incoming plate and slow‐convergence rate. Understanding the megathrust earthquake potential of this type of subduction zone is of both geodynamic and societal importance. Available geodetic observations indicate that the subduction megathrust of the Explorer segment is currently locked to some degree, but the downdip extent of the fault area that is potentially seismogenic is not known. Here we construct finite‐element models to estimate the thermally allowed megathrust seismogenic zone, using available knowledge of regional plate kinematics, structural data, and heat flow observations as constraints. Despite ambiguities in plate interface geometry constrained by hypocenter locations of low‐frequency earthquakes beneath Vancouver Island, the thermal models suggest a potential rupture zone of ∼60 km downdip width located fully offshore. Using dislocation modeling, we further illustrate that a rupture zone of this size, even with a conservative assumption of ∼100 km strike length, can cause significant tsunami‐genic deformation. Future seismic and tsunami hazard assessment in northern Cascadia must take the Explorer segment into account.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".