Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund: Securing Alberta's Future
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Alberta has an abundance of natural resource wealth. In recent decades the oil and gas component of the resource sector has accounted for a large proportion of the provincial government’s total revenue and, directly and indirectly, accounted for approximately half of total economic activity within the province. It has also made significant contributions to the economic growth in Alberta, allowing the province to have a high level of public services and a competitive tax regime that has further contributed to economic growth. The substantial non-renewable resource revenues (NRRRs) generated by the oil and gas sector are volatile and subject to decline over the long term. Along with resource depletion there are many risks to the sustainability of NRRRs arising from shifting energy markets, prices and costs, constraints in access to new markets and numerous environmental challenges. Given this, Alberta will need to save a higher proportion of its NRRRs in order to sustain prosperity and meet intergenerational equity objectives. Alberta’s current NRRR savings plan, the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF) has not been as successful as originally envisioned. With only sporadic contributions from resource revenues, a lack of inflation proofing and frequent withdrawals of fund earnings to support government budget shortfalls, the real (or inflation adjusted) value of the fund per-person has fallen sharply since the early 1980s. In comparison there are other similar funds that have performed much better. Two, which provide an interesting contrast, are Norway’s Government Pension Fund—Global, and Alaska’s Permanent Fund. A comparative analysis of the their approaches applied to an Alberta context can provide useful policy direction in changing the AHSTF to better serve the objectives of sustainable prosperity and intergenerational equity for Alberta.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.032 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".