Uncertainty assessment in aboveground biomass estimation at the regional scale using a new method considering both sampling error and model error
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Uncertainty associated with multiple sources of error exists in biomass estimation over large areas. This uncertainty affects the accuracy of the resultant biomass estimates. A new method that introduces Taylor series principles into a Monte Carlo simulation procedure was proposed and developed for estimating regional-scale aboveground biomass, along with quantifying the corresponding uncertainty arising from both sampling and model predictions. Additionally, the effect of sample size on estimates during model fitting was studied based on the new method to determine whether the effect of the size of the calibration data set can be neglected when the number of simulations is sufficiently large. The results revealed that the proposed method not only produces more reliable estimates of both biomass and uncertainty but also effectively and separately quantifies the uncertainties associated with different sources of error. The new method also reduced the effect of model uncertainty on final estimates. The uncertainty that was associated with model error increased significantly with decreasing sample sizes during model fitting, and the error was not reduced by increasing the number of Monte Carlo simulations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".