Spatial and temporal changes in seasonal range attributes in a declining barren-ground caribou herd
Bibliographic record
Abstract
From 1996 to 2015 the Bathurst caribou herd has declined from approximately 349,000 to 20,000 animals. Aboriginal traditional knowledge (TK) has recently observed the later arrival of the herd below the treeline, an attribute of the autumn range. Science also predicts that seasonal range attributes (e.g., area, location) likely vary with population size, and perhaps climate. We used Aboriginal TK and science to identify several seasonal range attributes that were examined for changes through time (decreasing population abundance). Attributes of seasonal ranges for female Bathurst caribou were calculated using satellite radio-collar data from January 1996 through October 2013. Climate data from CircumArctic Rangifer Monitoring and Assessment Network were analyzed for trends from 1979 to 2009. Analyses showed a significant decrease in the area of post-calving and autumn ranges, but no changes in winter and spring ranges. Results supported Aboriginal TK that female caribou have shifted the autumn range farther from the treeline and moved into the forest later in the year. Analysis of climate variables found no trends at the spatio-temporal scale of the post-calving to autumn ranges. Working hypotheses to explain these patterns, which are not mutually exclusive, include reduced predation risk, increased use of core areas at lower population density, and greater utilization of areas of taiga where arboreal and ground lichen availability and accessibility are relatively higher than in the forest. This analysis demonstrates how including Aboriginal TK can lead to stronger connections and results, with potential to provide new and different insights for further investigations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".