Changes in Physical Properties of the Nankai Trough Megasplay Fault Induced by Earthquakes, Detected by Continuous Pressure Monitoring
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract One primary objective of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 365, conducted as part of the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment, was to recover a temporary observatory emplaced to monitor formation pore fluid pressure and temperature within a splay fault in the Nankai subduction zone offshore SW Honshu, Japan. Here we use a 5.3 year time series of formation pore fluid pressure, and in particular the response to ocean tidal loading, to evaluate changes in pore pressure and formation and fluid elastic properties induced by earthquakes. Our analysis reveals 31 earthquake‐induced perturbations. These are dominantly characterized by small transient increases in pressure (28 events) and decreases in ocean tidal loading efficiency (14 events) that reflect changes to formation or fluid compressibility. The observed perturbations follow a magnitude‐distance threshold similar to that reported for earthquake‐driven hydrological effects in other settings. To explore the mechanisms that cause these changes, we evaluate the expected static and dynamic strains from each earthquake. The expected static strains are too small to explain the observed pressure changes. In contrast, estimated dynamic strains correlate with the magnitude of changes in both pressure and loading efficiency. We propose potential mechanism for the changes and subsequent recovery, which is exsolution of dissolved gas in interstitial fluids in response to shaking.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".