Estimation of Volatility in International Business Cycles in Korea and Selected Developed Countries under the Financial Crises
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examined the structural changes in volatility in the international business cycles using the real GDP during financial crises within the 1971-2016 period. The coefficients did not appear to reflect unstable structural changes during a financial crisis as seen in Chow tests. On the other hand, the 1-Step tests showed stable and/or unstable coefficients except in Canada and Korea, but these were persistently stable in the N-Step tests except for Germany and Japan where such coefficients were unstable. In the CUSUM tests, the coefficients were stable over the periods. The CUSUMSQ tests showed stable coefficients in the country except Korea and UK. Korea exhibited higher regime switching volatility probability which suggests that significant changes in SWARCH model may have to be made. Transition probability showed the highest duration in the low regime in Canada. The MS-VAR models demonstrated significant simultaneous structural changes in volatility in international economic cycles as a result of the market crash. Korea was significantly affected and transmitted by the real GDP of the countries through the Asia and Global financial crisis. Therefore, we found structural changes in volatility in the international business cycles as a result of simultaneous symmetric or asymmetric shocks between Korea and major developed countries and we confirmed that the high volatility (contraction) regime coincided with the financial crises.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".