The Recent Increase in the Occurrence of a Boreal Summer Teleconnection and Its Relationship with Temperature Extremes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This study has investigated the relationship between temperature extremes and a subseasonal hemispheric teleconnection pattern over the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. By applying self-organizing map (SOM) analysis to 200-hPa geopotential fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) for the period 1979–2012, a teleconnection pattern is identified that increased dramatically in its occurrence after the late 1990s. This pattern is characterized by a zonal wavenumber-5 pattern with anomalous high pressure cores over eastern Europe, northeastern Asia, the eastern North Pacific, the eastern United States, and Greenland. These high pressure centers coincide with regions of increasingly frequent temperature extremes in recent decades. To investigate the temporal evolution of the identified SOM pattern, time-lagged composites were performed relative to the days in which the 200-hPa geopotential field most closely resembled the SOM pattern. From day −10 to day 0, a wave train propagated from the central tropical Pacific to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Greenland. This poleward wave propagation was followed by the establishment of quasi-stationary high pressure centers over Greenland, Europe, and Asia. This study suggests that more frequent occurrence of the hemispheric teleconnection is linked to more severe and longer extreme weather events over the Northern Hemisphere since the late 1990s.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".