Two-Phase Degradation Process Model With Abrupt Jump at Change Point Governed by Wiener Process
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Observations on degradation performance are often used to analyze the underlying degradation process of highly reliable products. From the two-phase degradation path of the bearing performance observations, we observed that there exists an abrupt increase in degradation measurement at a change point. Then, the following degradation process started with the abrupt degradation measurement will degrade in a higher degradation rate. Here, a stochastic process-based degradation model is constructed to interpret the jump at the change point in the degradation process which is governed by the linear Wiener process. Meanwhile, the distribution of the first passage time over a prespecified threshold for the process is discussed. In addition, to get the estimates of the model parameter, the expectation-maximization algorithm is utilized since the change points are unobservable. Furthermore, to demonstrate the model's advantages over estimate, a comparison is made between the proposed and the existing known models from the literature. The results reveal that considering the jump in the degradation process can improve the accuracy of estimations in real applications.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it