THE CONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AND TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyzes whether the Fed had the ability through its conventional monetary policy to affect key economic and financial variables, and, in particular, the term structure of interest rates, during the recent financial crisis. This departs from the empirical literature that focuses mainly on the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies during this episode, although these policies are appropriate only to the extent that the conventional policy was ineffective in the first place. Our identification strategy based on the conditional heteroskedasticity of the structural innovations allows us to specify a flexible structural vector auto-regressive process that relaxes the identifying assumptions commonly used in earlier studies. Comparing our results obtained from samples excluding and including the financial crisis, we find that the conventional monetary policy has lost its effectiveness shortly after the beginning of the financial turmoil. This result suggests that the Fed's use of unconventional policies was appropriate, at least, with the objective of changing the term structure of interest rates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".