The Variability of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline in Alport Syndrome
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: A progressive trajectory toward renal failure is common in patients with Alport syndrome. Genotype-phenotype correlations have been well described; however, the natural history of the trajectory toward renal failure is not well described. Objective: The objective of this study is to describe the natural history of renal function decline in a cohort of Alport syndrome patients. Design: Retrospective observational cohort study. Setting: British Columbia, Canada, chronic renal disease registry 1995-2012. Patients: 37 biopsy proven Alport syndrome or hematuria with family history of Alport syndrome. Measurements: Serial estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) Trajectory of renal decline described graphically by fitting a cubic smoothing spline to patient’s eGFR measures. Various time points within a trajectory were indexed, randomly sampled, and followed for 2 years to estimate portion of progressors (>5 mL/min/1.73 m2 /y decline), stable state (0-2 mL/min/1.73 m2 /y decline), and regressors (>2 mL/min/1.73 m2 /y incline). Methods: In this retrospective observational cohort study, participants were identified through a chronic renal disease registry in British Columbia, Canada, from 1995 to 2012. Inclusion criteria were biopsy proven or hematuria with a family history of Alport syndrome. Individual patients and family group members were studied. Trajectory of renal decline described graphically by fitting a cubic smoothing spline to patient’s serial estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measures. Various time points within a trajectory were indexed, randomly sampled, and followed for 2 years to estimate portion of progressors (>5 mL/min/1.73 m 2 /y decline), stable state (0-2 mL/min/1.73 m 2 /y decline), and regressors (>2 mL/min/1.73 m 2 /y incline). Limitations: Histological or genetic evidence of Alport syndrome is not available in all patients. Results: Median follow-up time was 48.2 months of 37 patients (78% male), with a median age of 36 (interquartile range [IQR], 18-47) and a median age of renal replacement therapy commencement (n = 23) of 38 (IQR = 20-52). Renal function changes were found to be heterogeneous overall, intra-individual and within families. Portion of progressors in eGFR 45-60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 was 73.7% (SD, 10.3), whereas 23.6% (SD, 11.0) remained stable. Within eGFR 30-45 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , 45.6% (SD, 7.0) were progressors, whereas 53.4% (SD, 7.4) remained stable. A large portion of eGFR 15-30 mL/min/1.73 m 2 patients were stable (54.8%; SD, 8.4), whereas 25.7% (SD, 7.1) progressed and 19.5% (SD, 5.6) regressed. Conclusions: The renal decline in Alport syndrome patients is heterogeneous which has implications for designing clinical trials of interventions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".