Associations of fibroblast growth factor 23, vitamin D and parathyroid hormone with 5-year outcomes in a prospective primary care cohort of people with chronic kidney disease stage 3
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Vitamin D deficiency, elevated fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) and elevated parathyroid hormone (PTH) have each been associated with increased mortality in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Previous studies have focused on the effects of FGF23 in relatively advanced CKD. This study aims to assess whether FGF23 is similarly a risk factor in people with early CKD, and how this risk compares to that associated with vitamin D deficiency or elevated PTH. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Thirty-two primary care practices. PARTICIPANTS: at least 90 days apart) prior to study recruitment. OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality over the period of study follow-up and progression of CKD defined as a 25% fall in eGFR and a drop in GFR category, or an increase in albuminuria category. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-nine participants died during the follow-up period. Vitamin D deficiency (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.58) and elevated PTH (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.84) were independently associated with all-cause mortality. FGF23 was associated with all-cause mortality in univariable but not multivariable analysis. Fully adjusted multivariable models of CKD progression showed no association with FGF23, vitamin D status or PTH. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of predominantly older people with CKD stage 3 and low risk of progression, vitamin D deficiency and elevated PTH were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality but elevated FGF23 was not. While FGF23 may have a role as a risk marker in high-risk populations managed in secondary care, our data suggest that it may not be as important in CKD stage 3, managed in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: National Institute for Health Research Clinical Research Portfolio Study Number 6632.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".