Assessing long-term risks of prairie seed harvest: what is the role of life-history?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To meet the demand for more and larger tallgrass prairie restorations, seed is frequently collected en-masse from remnant native plant populations. Overharvesting of seed may lead to population extinctions, but these risks are not well studied. Species’ reproductive strategies may provide a basis for risk assessment. We assessed extinction risks associated with seed harvest for grassland plant species with different reproductive strategies (clonal vs. non-clonal). Using stage-based matrix models, we projected the extinction risk for two clonal and four non-clonal prairie species subjected to five harvest scenarios: (i) no harvest, (ii and iii) annual harvest at low/high intensity (50% and 75% seeds removed), and (iv and v) triennial harvest at low/high intensity. We compared the magnitude of growth or decline (λ) and mean extinction risk among populations during a 25-year modeling period. Non-clonal species were robust to triennial and low-intensity harvest, but susceptible to decreases in population growth (λ) up to 0.5 and elevated extinction risks up to 95% with high intensity annual harvest. Clonal species were unaffected by seed harvest, owing to a compensatory effect of vegetative propagation on growth rates. To maintain populations of non-clonal species in remnant grasslands, high intensity annual harvest should be avoided.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".