Testing for Geographic Variation in Survival of Spectacled Eider (<i>Somateria fischeri</i>) Populations in Chukotka, Russia and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Information on variation in survival among geographically distinct breeding populations can produce valuable insights about the population dynamics of a species. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta sub-population of Spectacled Eiders in Alaska decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. Causes for this decline are unknown but may be attributed to low female survival due to predation and lead exposure on the breeding grounds. From 2014 to 2015, we compared annual survival probabilities of Spectacled Eiders on Kigigak Island in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, and Ayopechan Island in the Chaun Delta, Chukotka, where similar field protocols were implemented. A Cormack-Jolly-Seber maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate apparent survival (φ) and recapture probability (p) from mark-resight data. We tested a) whether Russian and Alaskan sub-populations differed in their survival rates, b) whether survival varied annually, and c) whether survival followed an increasing or decreasing trend over time at either site. We found no evidence for differing survival between the two breeding areas when mean survival across years was compared, and we did not find strong evidence for a linear trend in survival over time at either site. Furthermore, our data supported models with annually varying survival at Kigigak Island and constant survival at Ayopechan Island. Sample size constraints precluded estimates of annual survival at Ayopechan Island. Our finding of no difference in mean survival between sites lends support to the idea that survival may be a function of conditions on the wintering grounds.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".