Bibliographic record
Abstract
The aim of this study is to analyse movements of exchange rate and trade balance during 2001-2015 and investigate whether a devaluation would improve the trade balance by a J-curve effect. The study uses quarterly data collected from reliable sources such as World Bank (WB), and General Statistic Office of Vietnam (GSO), and International Financial Statistics (IFS). The first part of the study shows the performance of the trade balance and exchange rate movements during the given period. The second part employs Impulse Response analysis to examine the pattern of the trade balance after a shock of exchange rate or a devaluation. The finding of the study is that following a devaluation, the trade balance deteriorates in the first two-quarters and then starting improving till the sixth quarter. After the six quarter, the trade balance again falls into deficit and followed by rises and declines unexpectedly. With responses illustrated from the analysis, the trade balance has a sign of the J curve in early quarters but this sign is fading in later quarters. The study also discovers that there is a possibility that after a shock of exchange rate, the trade balance will follow an S curve, instead of a J curve. In the end of the study, the author recommends some policy implications to improve trade balance and open further insights for subsequent researchers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".