Modeling conditional dependence among multiple diagnostic tests
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When multiple imperfect dichotomous diagnostic tests are applied to an individual, it is possible that some or all of their results remain dependent even after conditioning on the true disease status. The estimates could be biased if this conditional dependence is ignored when using the test results to infer about the prevalence of a disease or the accuracies of the diagnostic tests. However, statistical methods correcting for this bias by modelling higher-order conditional dependence terms between multiple diagnostic tests are not well addressed in the literature. This paper extends a Bayesian fixed effects model for 2 diagnostic tests with pairwise correlation to cases with 3 or more diagnostic tests with higher order correlations. Simulation results show that the proposed fixed effects model works well both in the case when the tests are highly correlated and in the case when the tests are truly conditionally independent, provided adequate external information is available in the form of fixed constraints or prior distributions. A data set on the diagnosis of childhood pulmonary tuberculosis is used to illustrate the proposed model.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.057 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it