Monitoring the evolution and migration of a methane gas plume in an unconfined sandy aquifer using time-lapse GPR and ERT
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fugitive methane (CH 4 ) leakage associated with conventional and unconventional petroleum development (e.g., shale gas) may pose significant risks to shallow groundwater. While the potential threat of stray (CH 4 ) gas in aquifers has been acknowledged, few studies have examined the nature of its migration and fate in a shallow groundwater flow system. This study examines the geophysical responses observed from surface during a 72 day field-scale simulated CH 4 leak in an unconfined sandy aquifer at Canadian Forces Base Borden, Canada, to better understand the transient behaviour of fugitive CH 4 gas in the subsurface. Time-lapse ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) were used to monitor the distribution and migration of the gas-phase and assess any impacts to groundwater hydrochemistry . Geophysical measurements captured the transient formation of a CH 4 gas plume emanating from the injector, which was accompanied by an increase in total dissolved gas pressure (P TDG ). Subsequent reductions in P TDG were accompanied by reduced bulk resistivity around the injector along with an increase in the GPR reflectivity along horizontal bedding reflectors farther downgradient. Repeat temporal GPR reflection profiling identified three events with major peaks in reflectivity, interpreted to represent episodic lateral CH 4 gas release events into the aquifer. Here, a gradual increase in P TDG near the injector caused a sudden lateral breakthrough of gas in the direction of groundwater flow, causing free-phase CH 4 to migrate much farther than anticipated based on groundwater advection . CH 4 accumulated along subtle permeability boundaries demarcated by grain-scale bedding within the aquifer characteristic of numerous Borden-aquifer multi-phase flow experiments. Diminishing reflectivity over a period of days to weeks suggests buoyancy-driven migration to the vadose zone and/or CH 4 dissolution into groundwater. Lateral and vertical CH 4 migration was primarily governed by subtle, yet measurable heterogeneity and anisotropy in the aquifer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".