The Long-Term Predictive Properties of the Paris Classification in Paediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The Paris modification of the Montreal classification for children with inflammatory bowel disease was accepted in 2011. We aimed to investigate the long-term clinical outcomes of patients diagnosed with IBD during childhood in a population-based cohort according to the Paris classification at diagnosis. METHODS: The medical records of paediatric inflammatory bowel disease patients, diagnosed from 2000 to 2016, were reviewed retrospectively. Main outcome measures included time to first flare, hospitalisation, surgery, and biologic therapy. RESULTS: In Crohn's disease patients [n = 301, median age 14.2 years], colonic location was associated with higher prevalence of extraintestinal manifestations, whereas ileal location and complicated behaviour were associated with anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody positivity. During a median follow-up of 9.1 years (interquartile range [IQR]of 4.7-12.3), complicated behaviour at diagnosis was associated with increased risk for surgery (hazard ratio[ HR] = 2.7, p < 0.001] and hospitalisation [HR = 1.5, p = 0.01] but not with the risk for flare or stepping-up to biologic therapy. Isolated colonic disease was associated with a decreased risk of surgery [HR = 0.25, p = 0.02]. During a median follow-up of 8.5 years [interquartile range of 5.1-12], in patients with ulcerative colitis [n = 126, median age 13.7 years], severe disease at diagnosis but not disease extent was associated with the risk for colectomy [HR = 3.5, p = 0.002], hospitalisation [HR = 3.3, p < 0.001], flare [HR = 2.4, p < 0.001] and biologic therapy [HR = 2.6, p = 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: The Paris classification for paediatric inflammatory bowel disease has clear predictive properties. Complicated disease and ileal location at diagnosis in Crohn's disease, and severity of disease but not its extension in ulcerative colitis, predict long-term worse outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".