Patterns of welfare-to-employment transitions of Croatian Guaranteed Minimum Benefit recipients: a preliminary study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we explore the transitions of social assistance beneficiaries to employment in Croatia.Data was sourced from the social welfare register for 208 persons from the 2015 cohort of new, unemployed social assistance recipients in one Centre for Social Welfare, their outcomes tracked until June 2017.About a quarter of the recipients became employed within one year, in most cases with wages slightly higher than the statutory minimum.Out of them, about a quarter relapsed into social assistance status within a year.Following the World Bank Employment Barriers approach, we examine whether outcomes are associated with disincentives to work (inactivity trap), lack of work-related capabilities, or gendered engagement with in-household work.We found the average participation tax rate (PTR) for recipients to stand at 57%, yet no effect of PTR, benefit level, debt or PTR level on transition to employment was identified.With respect to capabilities, the role of human capital (vocational in particular), work experience and age turned out to be consistent with prior research.Substitution of inhouse work is consistent with the finding that women are less likely to get employed if living in a household with dependents.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".