Overview of Ground-Motion Issues for Cascadia Megathrust Events: Simulation of Ground-Motions and Earthquake Site Response
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ground motions for earthquakes of M7.5 to 9.0 on the Cascadia subduction interface are simulated based on a stochastic finite-fault model, and used to estimate average response spectra for reference firm soil conditions. The simulations are first validated by modeling the wealth of ground-motion data from the the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake of Japan. Adjustments to the calibrated model are then made to consider average source, attenuation and site parameters for the Cascadia region. This includes an evaluation of the likely variability in stress drop for large interface earthquakes, and an assessment of regional attenuation and site effects. We perform best-estimate simulations for a preferred set of input parameters. Typical results suggest mean values of 5%-damped pseudo-acceleration in the range from about 100 to 200 cm/s2, at frequencies from 1 to 4 Hz, for firm-ground conditions in Vancouver. Uncertainty in most-likely value of the parameter representing stress drop causes variability in simulated response spectra of about ±50%. Uncertainties in the attenuation model produce even larger variability in response spectral amplitudes – a factor of about two at a closest distance to the rupture plane (Rcd) of 100 km, becoming even larger at greater distances. It is thus important to establish the regional attenuation model for ground-motion simulations, and to bound the source properties controlling radiation of ground motion. We calculate theoretical 1D spectral amplification estimates for four selected Fraser River Delta sites to show how the presence of softer sediments in the region may alter the predicted ground motions. The amplification functions are largely consistent with observed spectral amplification at Fraser River delta sites, suggesting amplification by factors of 2.5 to 5 at the peak frequency of the site; we note that deep sites in the delta have a low peak frequency, ~0.3 Hz. This work will aid in seismic hazard assessment and mitigation efforts in the active Cascadia region of southwestern B.C. An important consideration is that the uncertainties are large and present a dominant unknown when assessing seismic risk. We find that variability in the expected motions exceeds a factor of two even on rock-like sites, with uncertainty
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".