Prevalence of positive coeliac disease serology and HLA risk genotypes in a multiethnic population of adults in Canada: a cross-sectional study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Coeliac disease (CD) is a complex autoimmune disorder with known genetic risk factors. Approximately 1% of individuals of European ancestry have CD, but the prevalence among different ethnicities living in Canada remains unknown. The objective of the present study was to determine the prevalence of positive CD serology in a population of Canadian adults living in Toronto, and to determine whether the prevalence of CD seropositivity and predisposing human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ2/DQ8 risk genotypes differ between major ethnocultural groups. DESIGN: Cross-sectional screening study of participants from the Toronto Nutrigenomics and Health and the Toronto Healthy Diet studies. SETTING: University campus and households across Toronto, Canada. PARTICIPANTS FREE-LIVING: Adults (n=2832) of diverse ethnocultural backgrounds. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of positive CD serology was determined by screening for antitissue transglutaminase antibodies in individuals with predisposing HLA-DQ2/DQ8 genotypes. HLA genotypes were determined using six single nucleotide polymorphisms in the HLA gene region. RESULTS: Of the 2832 individuals screened, a total of 25 (0.88%; 95% CI 0.57% to 1.30%) were determined to have positive CD serology. The majority of seropositive CD cases were undiagnosed (87%). Prevalence was highest among Caucasians (1.48%; 95% CI 0.93% to 2.23%), and similar in those of 'Other' (0.74%; 95% CI 0.09% to 2.63%) or 'Unknown' (0.43; 95% CI 0.01% to 2.36%) ethnicity. No cases of positive CD serology were identified among East Asian or South Asian individuals. East Asians had a lower prevalence of HLA risk genotypes than Caucasians and South Asians (p<0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of positive CD serology among Canadian adults living in Toronto is likely ~1%, with 87% of cases being undiagnosed. These findings suggest the need for better screening in high genetic risk groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00516620; Post-results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".