Serum bilirubin and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Bilirubin is a potent anti-oxidant and higher serum concentrations of bilirubin have been associated with better lung function, slower lung function decline, and lower incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We sought to determine whether elevated bilirubin blood concentrations are associated with lower risk for acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD). We performed a secondary analyses of data in the Simvastatin for Prevention of Exacerbations in Moderate-to-Severe COPD (STATCOPE) and the Azithromycin for Prevention of Exacerbations of COPD (MACRO) studies. We used time-dependent multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses, using bilirubin concentrations prior to first AECOPD as the exposure variable and time to first AECOPD as the outcome variable. STATCOPE was used for model development, with validation in MACRO. In STATCOPE (n = 853), higher bilirubin was associated with a lower but statistically insignificant hazard for AECOPD, (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.89 per log10 increase [95%CI: 0.74 to 1.09; p = 0.26]). In the validation MACRO study (n = 1018), higher bilirubin was associated with a significantly lower hazard for AECOPD (aHR 0.80 per log10 increase [95%CI: 0.67 to 0.94; p = 0.008]). Bilirubin may be a biomarker of AECOPD risk and may be a novel therapeutic target to reduce AECOPD risk. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01061671 (registered 02 February 2010) and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00325897 (registered 12 May 2006).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".