Electronic cigarette use and smoking initiation among youth: a longitudinal cohort study
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<h3>BACKGROUND:</h3> The influence of e-cigarette use on smoking initiation is a highly controversial issue, with limited longitudinal data available for examining temporal associations. We examined e-cigarette use and its association with cigarette-smoking initiation at 1-year follow-up within a large cohort of Canadian secondary school students. <h3>METHODS:</h3> We analyzed data from students in grades 9–12 who participated in 2 waves of COMPASS, a cohort study of purposefully sampled secondary schools in Ontario and Alberta, Canada, at baseline (2013/14) and 1-year follow-up (2014/15). We assessed cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use at baseline and follow-up using self-completed surveys. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to examine correlates of past 30-day e-cigarette use at baseline and smoking initiation between waves within the longitudinal sample. <h3>RESULTS:</h3> Past 30-day e-cigarette use increased from 2013/14 to 2014/15 (7.2% v. 9.7%, <i>p</i> < 0.001), whereas past 30-day cigarette smoking decreased slightly (11.4% v. 10.8%, <i>p</i> = 0.02). Among the 44 163 students evaluated at baseline, past 30-day e-cigarette use was strongly associated with smoking status and smoking susceptibility. In the longitudinal sample (<i>n</i> = 19 130), past 30-day use of e-cigarettes at baseline was associated with initiation of smoking a whole cigarette (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.68–2.66) and with initiation of daily smoking (adjusted OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.41–2.28) at follow-up. <h3>INTERPRETATION:</h3> E-cigarette use was strongly associated with cigarette smoking behaviour, including smoking initiation at follow-up. The causal nature of this association remains unclear, because common factors underlying the use of both e-cigarettes and conventional cigarettes may also account for the temporal order of initiation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it