The Loyalty Trap: Regime Ethnic Exclusion, Commitment Problems, and Civil War Duration in Syria and Beyond
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article examines the impact of the ethnic exclusiveness of \nregimes on commitment problems and hence on civil conflict \nduration. It argues that members of privileged in-groups in \nhighly exclusive regimes can be trapped into compliance with \nthe regime. Ethnic exclusion helps to construct privileged-group \nmembers as regime loyalists. They therefore fear rebel reprisals \neven if they surrender or defect and consequently persist in \nfighting. The article finds in particular that, in ethnically \nexclusive regimes, privileged-group members mistrust even \nrebels who mobilize on a nonethnic agenda and regard rebel \nreassurances, including nonethnic aims, as suspect. Exclusion \ntherefore induces privileged-group cohesion, an effect more \nresistant to rebel reassurances than previously recognized. A \ncase study of the Syrian civil war shows this dynamic at a micro \nlevel, and a cross-national statistical analysis gives partial \nevidence that it lengthens civil conflicts on a larg`e scale.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it