Assessing the Potential of Passive Seismic Monitoring to Detect a CO2 Leak from the Aquistore Storage Site
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary This paper investigates the potential for passive seismic monitoring (PSM) to detect a CO2 leak for two possible scenarios, where a leak is seismic or aseismic. The Aquistore research project in Saskatchewan, Canada provides a suitable site to investigate this because the site is comprehensively monitored. To understand whether induced seismicity would occur following a hypothetical leak, we conduct modelling of fluid flow through a vertical fault. In the event of an aseismic leak, we assess the potential for ambient noise interferometry (ANI) and a tomographic inversion for Rayleigh wave group-velocity maps to provide a suitable CO2 leakage detection tool. A time-lapse ambient noise tomography survey of a CO2 storage site is possible for the first time because data is available preceding and following injection start-up. The fluid-flow modelling shows that a CO2 leak through a vertical fault would result in induced seismic events at depths <500 m. Predicted changes in seismic velocities with CO2 saturation at Aquistore are too small to resolve with the current precision of surface-wave velocity models. However, ANI may be useful to provide a cost-effective early warning system for leakage if uncertainties are reduced.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".