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Record W2769560882 · doi:10.1162/jinh_r_01177

Fit for the Presidency? Winners, Losers, What-Ifs, and Also-Rans

2017· article· en· W2769560882 on OpenAlexaff
Gil Troy

Bibliographic record

VenueThe Journal of Interdisciplinary History · 2017
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicAmerican Constitutional Law and Politics
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCONTESTPresidential systemPresidencyPoliticsGeorge (robot)ManagementSociologyPolitical scienceVisitor patternMedia studiesLawArt historyHistoryEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The words to describe this book are not the words usually used in academic reviews—fun, quirky, creative. The book has its merits, but it is neither systematic enough to be useful to historians nor sufficiently committed to one method or a series of methods to merit consideration as a contribution to interdisciplinary history. Like a visitor from another planet, the book most suits its own habitat, far beyond the academic universe.Morris begins with a great idea. Although some might consider today’s presidential campaign the world’s most extensive, expensive, high-stakes, over-the-top beauty contest, it is more like the world’s most important, systematic, albeit highly scrutinized job search—with one of the largest teams of evaluators (India wins that last distinction). Given that vision, it makes sense to assess successful presidents, losers, also-rans, and what-ifs as an executive recruiter would.Morris is, the book jacket reports, “a former political pollster, head of corporate communications, and international entrepreneur.” He might easily pass for an executive recruiter, because the book offers headhunters’ memos on fifteen presidential candidates. Sandwiched between an introduction and a conclusion are briefings—in chronological order—about presidents George Washington, William Henry Harrison, Abraham Lincoln, Herbert Hoover, Ronald Reagan, and Jefferson Davis (although Davis was the president of the wrong country). The briefings also cover major-party nominees who lost—DeWitt Clinton, Samuel J. Tilden, Wendell Willkie, and Barry Goldwater. Some aspirants who failed even to reach that level are also covered—William Randolph Hearst, William Gibbs McAdoo, George Marshall, Henry A. Wallace, and Robert F. Kennedy. Providing the curriculum vitae, as well as interesting, lively assessments, of these candidates, Morris grades them in four categories—accomplishments, intangibles, judgment, and overall. Marks range from outstanding to excellent, fair, and poor (334). Readers will enjoy these freeze-dried, easily digestible, servings of political biography. It is amusing to note how unqualified Lincoln was, meriting only a “fair” in accomplishments, or to read Morris’ dismissive assessment of the long-lamented Robert Kennedy: “Rarely has a career owed so much to nepotism” (292). Ouch.Morris’ heavy reliance on his “intangibles” category, which mainly concerns “personality and character,” makes his method particularly idiosyncratic: “Washington, Lincoln, and Reagan lacked the brilliance of, say, Clinton or Wallace, but by sheer force of personality and human traits they achieved exemplary success” (337). Such are the tidbits that this book yields, and they certainly have their place. They are even convincing at times. But, in the end, why these fifteen candidates were chosen and not any one of another of 150 possibilities remains something of a mystery. This reviewer, while amused and informed, would not be able to replicate the scores that Morris assigned to his candidates, beyond some of the most striking or obvious ones.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies
Consensus categoriesScience and technology studies
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.811
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0030.003
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.053
GPT teacher head0.357
Teacher spread0.303 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2017
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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