Bibliographic record
Abstract
ResumenEste trabajo analiza el impacto que la política monetaria expansiva mantenida por los bancos centrales a raíz de la crisis financiera ha producido en los ratings de los bancos de la Unión Europea, los Estados Unidos y Japón durante los años 2004-2013.Los reducidos tipos de interés y las escasas diferencias entre los tipos de interés a corto y a largo plazo suponen una amenaza de futuro para el sector bancario.Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el efecto tanto en los tipos de interés, como en la curva de tipos sobre los ratings bancarios tiene forma de U invertida en las tres grandes agencias de calificación Fitch, Moody's y Standard and Poor's.Por tanto, una subida de los tipos de interés, y/o un incremento de la pendiente de la curva de tipos tendría efectos beneficiosos sobre los ratings cuando estos son bajos, pero ulteriores subidas tendrían un efecto menor, agotándose su impacto e incluso pudiendo llegar a ser negativo.Las simulaciones realizadas indican que el efecto máximo de los tipos de interés que se obtiene en niveles del entorno del 2,5 por 100 en Standard and Poor's y del 4,5 por 100 en Moody's y Fitch.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".