Creativity Over the Lifespan in Classical Composers: Reexamining the Equal-Odds Rule
Bibliographic record
Abstract
1-his investigatiorr extends Sintontorr's (1977) senrinal study of lif'espan crcativity to eighteen crrinent classical colnposers' total output.Major and n.tinor lvot'k pl'odttction rvas positively co|related oveI thc littspan.consistcnt with Sirnonton's clrance-contiguration theorl' of cleatir"it1".I Iolr cvcr, colltrar)' to Sirnonton's (1977) nLrll linding.here stlong.;.rositivc.lirtear' and *eakcr, negativc, quaillatic age trcncls *'elc cclttsistentll firuncl in predicting hit ratio (proportiorr o1'nrastcrpiece-levcl nrusic to total n.tusic cotnposccl per age period).'t'his Lrni tirrnr l)' repl icated in sevet'al anzrly scs exat'n in i n g alternati vc cxplanations lor this pattern.Most irldividLral conlposers'hit ratros incleased ri ith age; none declirtecl.The t'cstllts indicate that eonrposcrs' perspicacity in evalr.ratingideas mostll incleascs * ith aqe.strggesting greiltef importance lbr er alLntion and elaborative ploblern solvirl,s proccsses lll cleatnc plotiLrctiritl than irnplicd b1 a chancc-conligttration ilcc o u lr1.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".