Validation of Spruce Budworm Outbreak History Developed from Aerial Sketch Mapping of Defoliation in New Brunswick
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aerial sketch mapping (ASM) of annual defoliation provides a means to quantify spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreak histories, but accuracy is affected by factors such as navigation and weather conditions. We used ground-based defoliation estimates from 123 permanent sample plots (PSP) in New Brunswick and increment core growth data from a subset of PSPs, to validate ASM estimates of defoliation. From 1985 to 1993, 85% of 332 cases were correctly classified by aerial estimates as nil–light (0–30%) or moderate–severe (31–100%), with the proportion correct varying by measurement year, defoliation severity, and host species. Growth indices generated from 81 visually cross-dated and verified balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.) tree-ring series in 23 PSPs were significantly negatively correlated with aerial-derived cumulative defoliation for 87% of the PSPs, and correlation increased when aerial estimates were combined with ground survey data. We conclude that aerial surveys provide a reasonable estimate of defoliation history to estimate growth reduction.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".