Bivariate Pheromone-based Monitoring of Spruce Budworm Larvae (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A bivariate approach to pheromone-based monitoring is developed for the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). The approach uses captures of males at pheromone traps for generation t (♂t) as a transitive term between densities of overwintering larvae in consecutive generations (L2t, L2t+1), based on a large data set including >2,000 observations in the province of Quebec (QC) between the interval 1992 and 2010. Although estimates of L2t and ♂t are autocorrelated to some extent, multi-year assessments of larval densities combined with pheromone trapping are justified by the complementarity (statistical significance) of both L2t and ♂t in predicting L2t+1 for 15 of 18 pairs of 2-yr intervals. Bivariate pheromone-based thresholds (number of males corresponding to specific transitions in larval densities between L2t and L2t+1) are reported for each year. As expected, thresholds for stable populations (L2t = L2t+1) were lower than for populations with positive growth rate (L2t < L2t+1). The thresholds derived in this study have limited heuristic value; however, because they vary greatly from year to year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".