Bivariate Pheromone-based Monitoring of Spruce Budworm Larvae (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A bivariate approach to pheromone-based monitoring is developed for the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). The approach uses captures of males at pheromone traps for generation t (♂t) as a transitive term between densities of overwintering larvae in consecutive generations (L2t, L2t+1), based on a large data set including >2,000 observations in the province of Quebec (QC) between the interval 1992 and 2010. Although estimates of L2t and ♂t are autocorrelated to some extent, multi-year assessments of larval densities combined with pheromone trapping are justified by the complementarity (statistical significance) of both L2t and ♂t in predicting L2t+1 for 15 of 18 pairs of 2-yr intervals. Bivariate pheromone-based thresholds (number of males corresponding to specific transitions in larval densities between L2t and L2t+1) are reported for each year. As expected, thresholds for stable populations (L2t = L2t+1) were lower than for populations with positive growth rate (L2t < L2t+1). The thresholds derived in this study have limited heuristic value; however, because they vary greatly from year to year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".