Exploring the Impact of an External Crisis on R&D Expenditures of Innovative New Ventures
Bibliographic record
Abstract
What is the impact of an exogenous crisis on research and development expenditures of innovative new ventures? Existing literature does not provide a clear answer. One view suggests that shrinking revenues and constrained funding reduce firms’ R&D intensity. The opposite view argues for amplified risk-seeking and innovative behavior of organizations in crisis, leading to higher commitment to R&D with resulting additional investments. We unite these opposing views in a generalized behavioral framework based on the premise that the impact of a crisis on a venture’s R&D expenditures is contingent on its pre-crisis R&D intensity. When facing a crisis, R&D-intensive companies reduce their R&D commitment, while non-R&D-intensive companies do not alter their R&D expenditure budgets, or even increase R&D spending to innovate themselves out of the adversity. We empirically test our behavioral framework using the longitudinal data from the Kauffman firm survey. The results strongly support our theoretical reasoning: during the 2008 financial crisis R&D-intensive ventures tended to substantively decrease their R&D investments (on average more than 10 percentage points decrease in R&D to sales), while their non-R&D-intensive counterparts demonstrated positive (although statistically insignificant) change in R&D investments. In other words, a crisis strikes most deeply the R&D activity of the most innovative ventures, despite the rational need to sustain R&D funding in industries with rapid technological change and short product life cycles. We conclude by positing underlying reasons for the observed behavioral patterns, and then suggest avenues for further research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".