Zika virus infection as a cause of congenital brain abnormalities and Guillain-Barré syndrome: From systematic review to living systematic review
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background. The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the Americas has caused international concern due to neurological sequelae linked to the infection, such as microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). The World Health Organization stated that there is “sufficient evidence to conclude that Zika virus is a cause of congenital abnormalities and is a trigger of GBS”. This conclusion was based on a systematic review of the evidence published until 30.05.2016. Since then, the body of evidence has grown substantially, leading to this update of that systematic review with new evidence published from 30.05.2016 – 18.01.2017, update 1. Methods. We review evidence on the causal link between ZIKV infection and adverse congenital outcomes and the causal link between ZIKV infection and GBS or immune-mediated thrombocytopaenia purpura. We also describe the transition of the review into a living systematic review, a review that is continually updated. Results. Between 30.05.2016 and 18.01.2017, we identified 2413 publications, of which 101 publications were included. The evidence added in this update confirms the conclusion of a causal association between ZIKV and adverse congenital outcomes. New findings expand the evidence base in the dimensions of biological plausibility, strength of association, animal experiments and specificity. For GBS, the body of evidence has grown during the search period for update 1, but only for dimensions that were already populated in the previous version. There is still a limited understanding of the biological pathways that potentially cause the occurrence of autoimmune disease following ZIKV infection. Conclusions. This systematic review confirms previous conclusions that ZIKV is a cause of congenital abnormalities, including microcephaly, and is a trigger of GBS. The transition to living systematic review techniques and methodology provides a proof of concept for the use of these methods to synthesise evidence about an emerging pathogen such as ZIKV.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.056 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".