Improving Revised International Prognostic Scoring System Pre-Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation Does Not Translate Into Better Post-Transplantation Outcomes for Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes: A Single-Center Experience
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The natural history of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is variable. The Revised International Prognostic Score (IPSS-R) is commonly used in practice to predict outcomes in patients with MDS at both diagnosis and before hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). However, the effect of change in the IPSS-R before allogeneic HSCT with chemotherapy or hypomethylating agents on post-transplantation outcomes is currently unknown. We assessed whether improvement in IPSS-R prognostic score pre-HSCT would result in improvement in clinical outcomes post-HSCT. Secondary goals included studying the effect of prognostic factors on post-transplantation survival. All patients with MDS who underwent allogeneic HSCT at the Leukemia/BMT Program of British Columbia between February 1997 and April 2013 were included. Pertinent information was reviewed from the program database. IPSS-R was calculated based on data from the time of MDS diagnosis and before HSCT. Outcomes of patients who had improved IPSS-R pre-HSCT were compared with those with stable or worse IPSS-R. Overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, with P values determined using the log-rank test. Hazard ratios were calculated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models to study the effects of the prognostic variables on OS and EFS. A total of 138 consecutive patients were included. IPSS-R improved in 62 of these patients (45%), worsened in 23 (17%), remained stable in 41 (30%), and was unknown in 12 (9%). OS was not statistically different across the improved, worsened, and stable groups (30% versus 22% versus 40%, respectively; P = .63). The cumulative incidences of relapse and nonrelapse mortality at 5 years were 28.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.1 to 36.1) and 31.6% (95% CI, 23.8 to 39.7), respectively. The rate of relapse was 23% in patients with <5% blasts at the time of HSCT, 69% in those with 5% to 20% blasts, and 66% in those with >20% blasts (P = .0004). In the entire cohort OS was 34% and EFS was 33%. There was no significant difference in outcomes between patients who received myeloablative conditioning and those who received nonmyeloablative conditioning before HSCT (OS, 34% and 39%, respectively; P = .63 and EFS, 34% and 32%, respectively; P = .86). OS was not statistically different among patients with improved, worsened, or stable IPSS-R. On multivariate analysis, only 3 factors were associated with OS: cytogenetic risk group at diagnosis, blast count at transplantation, and the presence or absence of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Improving IPSS-R before HSCT does not translate into better survival outcomes. Blast count pretransplantation was highly predictive of post-transplantation outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".