Prognostic Significance of Large Airway Dimensions on Computed Tomography in the General Population. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Rationale Large airway dimensions on computed tomography (CT) have been associated with lung function, symptoms, and exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), as well as with symptoms in smokers with preserved spirometry. Their prognostic significance in persons without lung disease remains undefined. Objectives To examine associations between large airway dimensions on CT and respiratory outcomes in a population-based cohort of adults without prevalent lung disease. Methods The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis recruited participants ages 45–84 years without cardiovascular disease in 2000–2002; we excluded participants with prevalent chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD). Spirometry was measured in 2004–2006 and 2010–2012. CLRD hospitalizations and deaths were classified by validated criteria through 2014. The average wall thickness for a hypothetical airway of 10-mm lumen perimeter on CT (Pi10) was calculated using measures of airway wall thickness and lumen diameter. Models were adjusted for age, sex, principal components of ancestry, body mass index, smoking, pack-years, scanner, percent emphysema, genetic risk score, and initial forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) percent predicted. Results Greater Pi10 was associated with 9% faster FEV1 decline (95% confidence interval [CI], 2 to 15%; P = 0.012) and increased incident COPD (odds ratio, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.43–3.45; P = 0.0004) per standard deviation among 1,830 participants. Over 78,147 person-years, higher Pi10 was associated with a 57% higher risk of first CLRD hospitalization or mortality (P = 0.0496) per standard deviation. Of Pi10’s component measures, both greater airway wall thickness and narrower lumen predicted incident COPD and CLRD clinical events. Conclusions In adults without CLRD, large airway dimensions on CT were prospectively associated with accelerated lung function decline and increased risks of COPD and CLRD hospitalization and mortality.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".