Measles surveillance in Canada: 2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Measles has been eliminated in Canada since 1998. Every year, the Public Health Agency of Canada presents epidemiologic evidence to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) to verify that measles elimination continues in Canada. OBJECTIVE: To describe measles activity in Canada for 2015 as updated evidence for continued measles elimination status. METHODS: Measles surveillance data were captured by the Canadian Measles and Rubella Surveillance System (CMRSS) and the Measles and Rubella Surveillance (MARS) pilot project and assessed for distribution by demographics and risk factors. Outbreak characteristics were summarized and genotypic and phylogenetic analyses were conducted and described. Surveillance data for 2015 were evaluated against PAHO's essential criteria for measles elimination status. RESULTS: In 2015, the incidence of measles in Canada was 5.5 cases per 1,000,000 population, with 196 cases across four provinces. The majority of cases (87.2%, n=171) were not immunized and both age-specific incidence rates and case counts were highest among those aged 10 to 14 years (29.5 cases per 1,000,000 population, n=55). This was due in large part to a sizeable outbreak in a non-immunizing religious community. Overall, 10.7% (n=21) of cases were hospitalized. Genotype information was available for 100% of measles events (4/4 outbreaks and 6/6 sporadic cases). Canada met or partially met most of PAHO's criteria for verification of measles elimination. CONCLUSION: Although importations and areas of low immunization coverage continue to challenge Canada's elimination status, surveillance data for 2015 provides strong evidence that measles elimination has been maintained.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".