Phenological shifts in North American red squirrels: disentangling the roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Phenological shifts are the most widely reported ecological responses to climate change, but the requirements to distinguish their causes (i.e. phenotypic plasticity vs. microevolution) are rarely met. To do so, we analysed almost two decades of parturition data from a wild population of North American red squirrels ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ). Although an observed advance in parturition date during the first decade provided putative support for climate change‐driven microevolution, a closer look revealed a more complex pattern. Parturition date was heritable [ h 2 = 0.14 (0.07–0.21 (HPD interval)] and under phenotypic selection [ β = −0.14 ± 0.06 (SE)] across the full study duration. However, the early advance reversed in the second decade. Further, selection did not act on the genetic contribution to variation in parturition date, and observed changes in predicted breeding values did not exceed those expected due to genetic drift. Instead, individuals responded plastically to environmental variation, and high food [white spruce ( Picea glauca ) seed] production in the first decade appears to have produced a plastic advance. In addition, there was little evidence of climate change affecting the advance, as there was neither a significant influence of spring temperature on parturition date or evidence of a change in spring temperatures across the study duration. Heritable traits not responding to selection in accordance with quantitative genetic predictions have long presented a puzzle to evolutionary ecologists. Our results on red squirrels provide empirical support for one potential solution: phenotypic selection arising from an environmental, as opposed to genetic, covariance between the phenotypic trait and annual fitness.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".