Greenhouse gas emissions from lakes and impoundments: Upscaling in the face of global change
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Lakes and impoundments are important sources of greenhouse gases (GHG: i.e., CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O), yet global emission estimates are based on regionally biased averages and elementary upscaling. We assembled the largest global dataset to date on emission rates of all three GHGs and found they covary with lake size and trophic state. Fitted models were upscaled to estimate global emission using global lake size inventories and a remotely sensed global lake productivity distribution. Traditional upscaling approaches overestimated CO 2 and N 2 O emission but underestimated CH 4 by half. Our upscaled size‐productivity weighted estimates (1.25–2.30 Pg of CO 2 ‐equivalents annually) are nearly 20% of global CO 2 fossil fuel emission with ∼ 75% of the climate impact due to CH 4 . Moderate global increases in eutrophication could translate to 5–40% increases in the GHG effects in the atmosphere, adding the equivalent effect of another 13% of fossil fuel combustion or an effect equal to GHG emissions from current land use change.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it