Increase in Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W invasive disease in Canada: 2009–2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Since 2010, there has been an increase in serogroup W Neisseria meningitidis (MenW) disease in many countries due to an emerging sequence type-11 clonal complex (ST-11 CC).In 2016, a small increase in MenW disease due to the ST-11 CC was documented in Ontario, Canada.Objective: To examine the trends in MenW disease in Canada and to assess whether there have been changes in the type of ST clonal complex causing MenW disease between 2009-2016.Methods: Invasive N. meningitidis isolates routinely submitted from across the country to the National Microbiology Laboratory were analyzed.The proportional distribution of MenW compared with other serogroups was calculated.The MenW isolates were then further characterized by serotype, serosubtype and ST clonal complex.The geographic distribution of the emerging ST-11 CC was documented and the age of patients with ST-11 CC was compared with the traditional ST-22 CC.Results: Of the 888 invasive isolates examined, 63 were MenW giving an average annual rate of 7.1%.However, the percentage of MenW varied from 2.7% in 2012 to 18.8% in 2016.From 2009 to 2013, 91% of the MenW were typed as the traditional ST-22 CC while from 2014 to 2016, 75% were typed to be the emerging ST-11 CC.ST-11 MenW CC was documented in five provinces across Canada (British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec).The median age of patients infected with the emerging ST-11 MenW CC was 53.5 years, while for patients with the traditional ST-22 CC it was 23.5 years.Conclusion: MenW meningococcal disease is growing in prevalence in Canada and is associated with an increase in the emerging ST-11 CC.This emerging clonal complex has now been identified in five provinces in Canada.It appears to be more common in older patients than the traditional ST-22 CC, which occurs more often in younger patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".