The relation between global palm distribution and climate
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fossil palms provide qualitative evidence of (sub-) tropical conditions and frost-free winters in the geological past, including modern cold climate regions (e.g., boreal, or polar climates). The freeze intolerance of palms varies across different organs and life stages, with seedlings in particular less tolerant of sub-zero temperatures than adult plants, limiting successful establishment of populations while permitting adult palms to survive in cultivation outside their natural ranges. Quantitatively, palms indicate minimum cold month mean temperature (CMMT) at 2-8 °C in palaeoclimate reconstructions. These data have accentuated model-proxy mismatches for high latitudes during Paleogene hyperthermals when palms expanded poleward in both hemispheres. We constructed a manually filtered dataset of >20,000 georeferenced Arecaceae records, by eliminating cultivars. Statistically derived mean annual temperature, mean annual temperature range, and CMMT thresholds for the Arecaceae and lower rank subfamilies and tribes reveal large differences in temperature sensitivity depending on lower taxonomic classification. Cold tolerant tribes such as the Trachycarpeae produce thresholds as low as CMMT ≥ 2.2 °C. However, within the palm family, CMMT < 5 °C is anomalous. Moreover, palm expansion into temperate biomes is likely a post-Palaeogene event. We recognize a CMMT ≥ 5.2 °C threshold for the palm family, unless a lower taxonomic rank can be assigned.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it