Cholera Outbreak Investigation in Baghdad Al-Rusafa August-November 2017
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Iraq is a cholera-endemic country with outbreaks occurring every 3-4 years. Since 29th, August 2017, Iraq CDC received reports on confirmed cholera patients in Baghdad/ Resafa (Eastern Baghdad with a population of 4.8 million). Up to Nov 29th the total number of confirmed cholera patients was 257. Objective: To determine the epidemiological characteristics of the patients and identify potential risk factors. Methods: A team of FETP residents dispatched to investigate the outbreak and developed a form to compile demographic and epidemiological data from all the patients' investigation forms that were filled at the treating hospitals. Then a case-control study conducted using the accessible cholera patients and neighbors' controls. The cholera case was defined as any patient with acute watery diarrhea, and isolation of Vibrio cholera O1 or O139 from a stool sample. Results: Among the 257 confirmed cases, 51% were male, mean age was 38.2 years and 44% were illiterate. The attack rate was 5.4/100,000; the highest was in Baladiyat (13/100,000), Baghdad - Jadida (12/100,000), and Madain (8/100,000) districts. The case fatality rate was 1.17%. The significant risk factors were: drinking tap water (OR=5.2, 95% CI:2.2-12.5), using Reverse Osmosis water (OR=8, 95% CI:2.4-26.1), not using boiled water (OR=2, 95% CI:1.2-3.8), not practicing washing hand after using a toilet (OR=5, 95% CI:1.9-13.4), lack of awareness toward boiling water (OR=1.8, 95% CI:1.04-3.3) and history of having meals outside home within seven days preceding onset (OR=4.8, 95% CI: 1.9-12.2). No significant association found with the following factors: education, occupation, crowding index, house sewage disposal type, using aqua tabs, chlorine readings, and travel history. Conclusions: Shortage of safe water and poor hygiene are still the main causes of cholera outbreaks in Iraq. Political commitment towards the provision of safe water and improving sanitary conditions are the cornerstone to stop these outbreaks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".