First detection of precursory ground inflation of a small phreatic eruption by InSAR
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phreatic eruptions are caused by pressurization of geothermal fluid sources at shallow levels. They are relatively small compared to typical magmatic eruptions, but can be very hazardous. However, owing to their small magnitudes, their occurrences are difficult to predict. Here we show the detection of locally distributed ground inflation preceding a small phreatic eruption at the Hakone volcano, Japan, through the application of interferometric synthetic aperture radar analysis. The ground inflation proceeded the eruption at slow speed of ∼5 mm/month with a spatial size of ∼200 m in the early stage, and then it accelerated 2 months before the eruption that occurred for the first time in 800–900 yrs. The ground uplift reached ∼30 cm, and the eruption occurred nearby the most deformed part. The deformation speed correlated well with inflation of spherical source located at 4.8 km below sea level, thus suggesting that heat and/or volcanic fluid supply from the spherical source, maybe magma reservoir, directly drove the subsurface hydrothermal activity. Our results demonstrate that high-spatial-resolution deformation data can be a good indicator of subsurface pressure conditions with pinpoint spatial accuracy during the preparatory process of phreatic eruptions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".