Phenology of hatching and food in low Arctic passerines and shorebirds: is there a mismatch?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The warming climate is driving earlier spring snow melt and longer growing seasons in tundra regions of northwestern North America, thereby changing the timing of ecological processes. On Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada, we investigated changes in the migratory bird community, and the potential for phenological mismatch of egg hatching with the pulses in abundance of arthropod prey on which young birds depend for growth. We found an apparent reduction in abundance or loss of some species dependent on freshwater ponds or sparsely vegetated upland tundra. Tracking hatch dates of passerines and shorebirds along with the changes in biomass of mobile life history stages of arthropods (principally Araneae, Tipulidae, Carabidae, Muscidae, Chironomidae, Mycetophilidae, and Ichneumonidae), we found no evidence for phenological mismatch in the 2007–2009 time period. Most nests hatched, and the period of most rapid chick growth occurred, in advance of the highest availability of arthropod biomass. Shorebirds hatched significantly later than passerines, less in advance of the peak abundances of arthropods. They are most at risk of future mismatch, given likely trend to earlier onset of arthropod availability and longer migration routes. Herschel Island is a well-studied site warranting further monitoring to assess changes in the Arctic tundra ecosystem.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".