American College of Rheumatology Provisional Criteria for Global Flares in Childhood‐Onset Systemic Lupus Erythematosus
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To validate the preliminary criteria of global flare for childhood-onset SLE (cSLE). METHODS: Pediatricians experienced in cSLE care (n = 268) rated unique patient profiles; results of standard cSLE laboratory testing and information about the cSLE flare descriptors were presented as follows: global assessment of patient well-being, physician global assessment of disease activity (MD-global), Disease Activity Index score, protein/creatinine ratio (PCR), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). Using rater interpretation of the course of cSLE (baseline versus followup as the gold standard), performance (sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) of the preliminary flare criteria was tested. An international consensus conference was held to rank the preliminary flare criteria as per the American College of Rheumatology recommendations and delineate threshold scores for minor, moderate, and major flares. RESULTS: The accuracy of the 2 highest-ranked candidate criteria that consider absolute changes (∆) of the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) or British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) (numeric scoring: A = 12, B = 8, C = 1, and D/E = 0), MD-global, PCR, and ESR were confirmed (both AUC >0.93). For the SLEDAI-based criteria (0.5 × ∆SLEDAI + 0.45 × ∆PCR + 0.5 × ∆MD-global + 0.02 × ∆ESR) flare scores ≥6.4/3.0/0.6 constituted major/moderate/minor flares, respectively. For the BILAG-based algorithm (0.4 × ∆BILAG + 0.65 × ∆PCR + 0.5 × ∆MD-global + 0.02 × ∆ESR) flare scores ≥7.4/3.7/2.2 delineated major/moderator/minor flares, respectively. These threshold values (SLEDAI, BILAG) were all >82% sensitive and specific for capturing flare severity. CONCLUSION: Provisional criteria for global flares in cSLE are available to identify patients who experienced a flare. These criteria also allow for discrimination of the severity of cSLE exacerbations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".