Science for informed decision: A 3D unified conceptual model of the Milk River Transboundary Aquifer (Alberta-Montana).
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Milk River transboundary aquifer straddles southern Alberta (Canada) and northern Montana (United States), in a semi-arid region considered water short. This confined sandstone aquifer is a source for municipal supply and agricultural uses on the Canadian side, as well as for secondary oil recovery on the US-side of the border. The extensive use of this resource since the mid 1950’s has led to a dramatic drop in the water level in some places and concerns about the durability of the resource have risen. The Milk River aquifer has been the object of many studies during the 20th century; however most of them were limited by the US\Canada border, preventing a sound understanding of the global dynamics of the aquifer. The objectives of this transboundary study are to better understand the dynamics of the Milk River aquifer, following its natural limits, in order to make recommendations for a sustainable management and its good governance by the two international jurisdictions, as recommended in the UNGA resolution 63/124 on the Law of Transboundary Aquifers. Since 2009, the Milk River transboundary aquifer is part of the inventory of UNESCO ISARM-Americas initiative, which encourages riparian states to work cooperatively toward mutually beneficial and sustainable aquifer development However, the use of this shared resource is not ruled by any international agreement or convention between the USA and the Canada. Stakeholders from the two countries have been involved, at various levels of jurisdictions (municipal, provincial, state, federal) to establish a strong cooperation. In these contexts, models can constitute useful tools for informed decisions. In the case of the Milk River aquifer, models could support scientists and managers from both countries in avoiding potential tensions linked to the water shortage context in this region. Models can determine the conditions of overexploitation and provide an assessment of a sustainable yield. A unified conceptual model of the Milk River Aquifer has been built. This model follows the natural limits of the aquifer and is not interrupted by the US\Canada border. The conceptual model covers many aspects such as the hydrostratigraphic 3D model, the groundwater flow, the recharge and discharge areas, the hydrogeological parameters, the pumping and observation wells, and the transboundary aspects. This model covers circa 55 000 km2. The study area is limited to the North/Northeast and Southeast by gas fields. This unified conceptual model will form the basis for a future 3D numerical hydrogeological model of groundwater flow in the Milk River Aquifer across the Canada-US border.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.014 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.016 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Research integrity | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.018 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".