Characterization of western spruce budworm outbreak regions in the British Columbia Interior
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The western spruce budworm (WSB; Choristoneura freemani Razowski) shapes Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) forests throughout western North America with periodic, severe landscape-level defoliation events. The largest and most continuous recorded defoliation occurred in the 2000s, largely centered in the Williams Lake and 100 Mile House WSB outbreak regions, peaking in 2007 at 847 000 ha defoliated in British Columbia (B.C.). Unique WSB outbreak regions in south-central B.C. are described using biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification, geography, 106 years of documented defoliation, and 46 stand-level Douglas-fir host tree-ring chronologies. Since the 1980s, recorded defoliation in B.C. has shifted from coastal ecosystems and become a dominant disturbance in drier, colder, interior Douglas-fir ecosystems. Defoliation records demarcate four outbreaks from 1950–2012 and up to three growth suppression events from 1937–2012. Outbreak duration was shorter in the north and far south of B.C., with recovery periods (no trees showing growth suppression) shorter over all WSB outbreak regions in the 2000s, suggesting that trees may be increasingly susceptible to each successive defoliation event. Knowing the regional outbreak periodicity may facilitate early detection of incipient WSB populations, which is critical for management as many of our low-elevation Douglas-fir forests become more stressed with changing and unpredictable climate regimes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".