Tracing studies in cohorts with attrition: Selection models for efficient sampling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cohort studies of chronic diseases involve recruitment and longitudinal follow-up of affected individuals with a view to studying the effect of risk factors on disease progression and death. When the time to withdrawal from the cohort is conditionally independent of the disease process the primary consequence is a loss of information on the parameters of interest. This loss can sometimes be mitigated through the conduct of tracing studies in which a subsample of those lost to follow up are contacted and some information is obtained on their disease and survival status. We describe the use of selection models to sample individuals for tracing who will yield more efficient estimators than those obtained by simple random sampling. Efficient sampling schemes featuring cost constraints are also developed and shown to perform well. An application to data from the University of Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Cohort illustrates how to apply the method in a real setting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.130 | 0.220 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".