The rise and fall of an ancient Adélie penguin ‘supercolony’ at Cape Adare, Antarctica
Bibliographic record
Abstract
) colonies at Cape Adare, Antarctica. This colony, first established at approximately 2000 BP (calendar years before present, i.e. 1950), is currently the largest for this species with approximately 338 000 breeding pairs, most located on low-lying Ridley Beach. We hypothesize that this colony first formed after fast ice began blocking open-water access by breeding penguins to the Scott Coast in the southern Ross Sea during a cooling period also at approximately 2000 BP. Our results suggest that the new colony at Cape Adare continued to grow, expanding to a large upper terrace above Ridley Beach, until it exceeded approximately 500 000 breeding pairs (a 'supercolony') by approximately 1200 BP. The high marine productivity associated with the Ross Sea polynya and continental shelf break supported this growth, but the colony collapsed to its present size for unknown reasons after approximately 1200 BP. Ridley Beach will probably be abandoned in the near future due to rising sea level in this region. We predict that penguins will retreat to higher elevations at Cape Adare and that the Scott Coast will be reoccupied by breeding penguins as fast ice continues to dissipate earlier each summer, restoring open-water access to beaches there.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".