Does Molimina Indicate Ovulation? Prospective Data in a Hormonally Documented Single-Cycle in Spontaneously Menstruating Women
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Approximately 33% of normal-length (21–35 days) cycles have subclinical ovulatory disturbances and lack sufficient progesterone, although their normal length ensures enough estrogen. Subclinical ovulatory disturbances are related to significant premenopausal spine bone loss (−0.86%/year). Molimina, non-distressing premenstrual experiences, may detect ovulation within normal-length cycles. This prospective study assessed the relationship between molimina and ovulation. After 1-cycle of daily diary and first morning urine collections, women answered the Molimina Question (MQ): “Can you tell by the way you feel that your period is coming?” and were invited to share (a) predictive premenstrual experience(s). A 3-fold increase in follicular-luteal pregnanediol levels confirmed ovulation. In 610 spontaneously menstruating women (not on hormonal contraception, mean age 31.5 ± 5.3, menarche age 12.7 ± 1.5, cycle length [CL] 29 days, MQ positive in 89%), reported premenstrual experiences which included negative moods (62%), cramps (48%), bloating (39%), and front (26%) or axillary (25%) breast tenderness. Of 432 women with pregnanediol-documented cycles, 398 (92%) were ovulatory (CL: 29 ± 5) and 34 (8%) had ovulatory disturbances (CL: 32 ± 14). Women with/without ovulatory cycles were similar in parity, body mass index, smoking, dietary restraint and the MQ; ovulatory-disturbed cycles were longer. Molimina did not confirm ovulation. A non-invasive, inexpensive ovulation indicator is needed to prevent osteoporosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".