Refugees and Forced Displacement: Challenges for the Military Planner
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In 2009, conflict, violence and the fear of governmental persecution caused over forty-three million people worldwide, equivalent to the population of Canada, to leave their homes and seek safety elsewhere. Twenty-seven million displaced within their countries' borders. The remaining fifteen million were refugees. They crossed international borders and entered a new country in order to seek safety. The conditions that produce refugees, inter and intra-state conflict, violence and persecution have always existed and will continue into the future. Events within the last twenty years have shown that humanitarian measures alone are seldom enough to stabilize the environment, end the violence and reverse the conditions that produce large numbers of refugees. Where wide spread conflict, violence and persecution exist, more severe interventions such as military action may be necessary to stop the violence. For this reason, planners within the United States Department of Defense can expect to be involved with refugees. It is nothing new. Since the Second World War, American forces have assisted many groups: Hmong from Vietnam (1970s), Cuban asylum seekers (1980s), Haitian boat people (1990s), Iraqis after Desert Storm, and refugees from the Balkan conflicts (1990s). It should be obvious that American military officers, especially those in the military police and civil affairs field, should expect to help plan and administer such efforts in the future. Therefore, what are the critical factors planners should consider when directed to conduct operations in response to a refugee crisis? The list of tasks and considerations is long. Often they cross physical, jurisdictional and intellectual boundaries. This monograph will focus on six of the most important considerations that affect refugee situations. They include the role of refugee law, specifically, the Geneva Convention, the 1951 United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, and United States law. Planners must also understand the role of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees during refugee crisis. They must consider the role that the media has in influencing the public's opinion and foreign policy with regard to refugees and refugee crises. The next consideration is the long-term resolution of the refugee problem through repatriation, integration or resettlement programs. Planners also need to consider the physical and psychological effects of victimization on the refugees. Finally, the planner needs to understand the effect of refugees on the receiving nation in terms of fear, economic impacts and security. This paper argues that these issues can be grouped into three broad areas when planning operations. These include institutional factors, international factors, and finally, psychological and social factors. The object of these considerations is to provide our forces with an effective, workable, concept of resolving refugee displacement. The goal for the military planner is to assist his, or her, commander in returning the affected region to a stable state as quickly as possible.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.019 | 0.012 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.012 | 0.016 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.018 |
| Research integrity | 0.017 | 0.028 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.024 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".