Un sistema de alerta temprana para crisis cambiarias en Argentina y Brasil, 1990-2009
Bibliographic record
Abstract
La crisis financiera mundial (GFC por sus signos en ingles) del 20072009 ha afectado a muchas regiones, incluyendo America Latina. Este documento se centra en las crisis cambiarias en Argentina y Brasil, las dos economias mas grandes de Sudamerica, y con una amplia experiencia con crisis cambiarias. Estimamos un sistema de alerta temprana, que consiste en un modelo estatico de factores y un modelo logit multinomial ordenado, con datos mensuales de 1990 a 2007. Predicciones ex ante para 2008-2009 producen un aumento de la probabilidad de crisis cambiarias en el otono de 2008. Nuestros resultados confirman que elementos de crisis anteriores contienen informacion relevante para pronosticar las crisis cambiarias durante la crisis financiera mundial.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.026 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".