Characteristics of Children With Invasive Pneumococcal Disease After the Introduction of the 13-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in England and Wales, 2010–2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In England and Wales, replacement of childhood 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with a 13-valent vaccine (PCV13) in 2010 was associated with a significant reduction in PCV13-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), with a small increase in IPD due to non-vaccine serotypes. Here, we describe the clinical presentation, comorbidity prevalence, serotype distribution and outcomes of childhood IPD during the first 6 years after PCV13 introduction. METHODS: Public Health England conducts enhanced IPD surveillance in England and Wales, with detailed information requested from general practitioners for all cases in children <5 years of age. Invasive isolates are routinely serotyped at the Public Health England reference laboratory. RESULTS: From April 2010 to March 2016, 1280 IPD episodes were confirmed in 1255 children 3-59 months of age; 84.3% (1059/1255) isolates were serotyped. Clinical presentation with meningitis was most prevalent in 3- to 11-month olds (45.8%, 209/456) and lower respiratory tract infection in 24- to 59-month olds (46.7%, 133/285). Overall, 259 (20.6%) children had 292 comorbidities, particularly immunosuppression (31.6%, 92/292). Twenty-one children (1.8%) had recurrent IPD. The case fatality rate was 5.1% (64/1255; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.9%-6.5%) and independently associated with meningitis (aOR 3.53; 95% CI: 1.62-7.70) and presence of comorbidity (aOR, 2.41; 95% CI: 1.25-4.64). In 2015/2016, PCV13 serotypes were responsible for 10.8% (25/232) of serotyped cases; the most prevalent non-PCV13 serotypes were 12F (18%), 10A (12%), 23B (10%), 33F (10%), 15B/C (10%) and 8 (8%). CONCLUSIONS: Most childhood IPD cases are now due to non-PCV13 serotypes. A higher proportion of children with IPD have underlying comorbidity, but, reassuringly, the risk of recurrent IPD or death remains low.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".